Monthly Archives: December 2010

Maverick Outwits Climate Science in Global Warming Predictions Game

As Britain’s top independent forecaster (a skeptic) again outwits his global warming adversaries in weather prediction, we examine what really seperates the men from the boys in this hot topic.

Award winning maverick forecaster, Piers Corbyn’s unparalled success in outperforming his rivals (global warming believers) is winning him deserved column inches in the British press. The man who, in 2010 predicted a trio of major rare events (Pakistan floods, Moscow heatwave, Britain’s brutal winter) gives us a rare glimpse into why he’s so successful, to the great embarrassment of his main rivals, the Met Office.

The simple truth is no mystery. Corbyn doesn’t rely on what he refers to as “junk computer models” that he claims are routinely fed highly spurious temperature data. But more pointedly, the sage astrophysicist insists the vital ingredient in his method is adding to the mix solar and lunar variability, which conventional climatologists dismiss as being of less importance than human emissions of carbon dioxide. Corbyn raises a wry smile at the mention of the phrase ‘greenhouse gases.’ "More junk science!" He recommends a more compelling analysis of that theory here

As the 63-year-old attests, while his predictions are so eerily accurate and his rivals so wantonly askew, can we now deduce there is a fundamental flaw in his rivals’ methodology? Let’s look closer at the science.

 

Skeptics Argue Poor Temperature Data Records Skew Analyses
Critics of government-funded climate research have long argued that one of the most insidious acts in recent decades has been the wanton culling of global weather stations maintaining real world thermometer readings.

As reported byA Sceptical Mind,’

“In the last 25 years there has been an accelerating reduction in thermometer counts globally with the pace of deletion rising rapidly in recent years. Over 6000 stations were active in the mid-1990s. Just over 1000 are in use today.”

Many of the ‘lost’ thermometers were (and still are) located in Polar Regions. For example, Canada has 100 perfectly usable weather stations inside the Arctic Circle-but only one at Eureka on Ellesmere Island – is used by government-funded climatologists.

So why does this matter? Critics have long pointed out that fewer data collection centers means less reliable data. They argue the ulterior motive for climatologists dropping thousands of perfectly serviceable thermometers is to allow computer modelers a freer hand to ‘interpolate’ their own synthetic data e.g. fill the gaps with their own ‘confirmation bias.’ Some of us would call that fraud.
 

The ‘Bolivia Effect’ Warms our new SIM Planet
The confirmation bias of climate modelers also skews the data for weather forecasters, as succinctly shown by E.M Smith who calls this the ‘Bolivia Effect.’ Smith tells us that, “There has not been any thermometer data for Bolivia in GHCN since 1990.”

Why is that significant? Well, Bolivia is one of the 5,000 ‘cooler’ weather stations that climatologists have conveniently dumped from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN).
 

Remember Al Gore’s ‘Canary in the Coal Mine’?

Noted climate alarmist, Al Gore once famously asked that we look to the Artic for the ‘canary in the coal mine’ of climatic change. How convenient for Al when the Artic has been virtually stripped of thermometers.

Are we seriously to believe that despite over $80 billion being spent to date on climate research the budget has no room to maintain ‘cooler’ global thermometers? Aren’t weather forecasters entitled to be given a clearer picture of actual shifts in global weather patterns more reliable than what Climategate investigator Lord Oxburgh determined as “subjective” climate data?

This thermometer cull is especially worrisome when we learn that U.S. climate scientists as GISS delete Sea Surface Temperature data from the Arctic Ocean, and a third of data from Antarctica. Now polar temperatures have to be based on thermometers 1,200km away!

Thus it’s little wonder that during yet another brutal winter’s icy blast NASA and their fellow alphabet gravy train riders can trumpet 2000-2010 as the “hottest decade” in recorded history.

 

Tired of ‘Warming Causes Cooling’ Claims

 But not to be outdone by revelations of their statistical shenanigans, climate doomsayers are now resorting to dismissing Corbyn and Co. for daring to suggest a recent crop of cold winters is the harbinger of a new mini ice age.

 

“Warming causes cooling, too” according to the disjointed thinking of those folks at realclimate.org, the hub of doomsaying lore and who have been chopping and changing their take on this issue for years. However, anyone who has read the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports will know that nowhere in their literature do they claim any such long-term effect.

 

Reliance on Computer Simulations Led to Faulty Forecasting

Like other skeptics Corbyn, who runs London-based WeatherAction, believes a doomsaying clique intentionally worsened the problem by encouraging climate modelers worldwide to trust ‘official’ data. Thus, even honest scientists and weather forecasters become the inadvertent ‘useful idiots’ of the scam as they blithely load their own computers with pure warmist “GIGO”- or ‘garbage in, garbage out.”

 

What has saved Corbyn from the taint of this GIGO mass epidemic is that he has had the great foresight, nay, genius, the stick to the traditional scientific method and not touch GHCN’s nefarious numbers. 

While the duped and the doomsayers at the UK’s Met Office have been erring time and again predicting warmer temperatures, the maverick 63-year-old astrophysicist has been making detailed and precise calibrations from the sun and moon coupled with further data analysis of past temperature records ( not junk ‘homogenized’ variants from GHCN, NASA GISS, HadCrut, NOAA, etc).

 

Despite being mocked by the alphabet soup brigade riding their governmental gravy trains, WeatherAction has risen from within the private sector and can no longer be ignored by the mainstream press. Corbyn’s telling warning of “ the worst winters for 100 years” was extensively reported across the blogosphere as were his Pakistan flood and Moscow heatwave forecasts.

 

Corbyn, the Man who came in From the Cold

A bemused Boris Johnson, Mayor of London, warmly praised Corbyn in the Daily Telegraph (December 22, 2010).

In these cold, harsh recession-hit commercial times Mayor Johnson is attuned to the fact Britain can afford no room for expensive government failures.  The 46-year-old who has never seen a winter like this one berated the Met Office, which, despite being taxpayer funded to the tune of hundreds of millions, is year after year being out-predicted by Corbyn.

In 2009 more than 25,000 people died in England and Wales as a result of the nation’s coldest temperatures since 1978. This year that gruesome tally is sure to be exceeded as Britain is yet again caught out and ill prepared for another brutally cold winter.

Johnson, close to Westminster’s corridors of power, has helped usher in the one man who really ought to be brought in from the cold. Other media outlets take note.

But Corbyn’s successes are no surprise to most skeptics. Bookmakers haven’t been taking weather bets off him for years and Dr Dennis Wheeler of the University of Sunderland justified the “85 percent success rate” claim with a peer-reviewed paper.

Some argue if the British government were truly concerned about giving taxpayers better value for money they’d appoint Corbyn as head of the Met Office. But pigs aren’t yet learning to fly in London.

 

Confirmation Bias Persists Among Government Agencies

UK taxpayers still suffer, as most major media outlets remain wedded to the global warming doomsaying and any and all confirmation bias fitting their mindset. The current annual tax bill to ‘fight’ Britain’s global warming is set at £18 billion thanks to politicians unanimously voting in the Climate Change Act (2008). This is a pattern of mass delusion well known to psychologists.

 

Those afflicted with this malaise are possessed by what is termedattitude polarization;’ they become intently focused on only one possibility and ignore all other alternatives.

As a further case in point, this year’s Moscow heatwave was widely trumpeted in the press as proof of global warming. However, those same media outlets are studiously ignoring the current predicament of an icebound Russia where experts are anticipating the coldest winter in 1,000 years. 

Interpolated ‘Guessed’ Artic Temperatures Skew Weather Forecasts
Corbyn like other skeptics, can outdo Al Gore’s ‘canary’ and it’s the world’s most accurate scientific barometer of climate change; the 351-year-old Central England Temperatures [CET]). Scientist and non-scientist alike can peer into this ‘coal mine’ and see not one shred of evidence for man-made global warming.

This much-ignored yet century’s-long gentle line of temperatures most evidently exposes the establishment’s doomsaying confirmation bias. When scientists (and their government and media buddies) use facts so selectively, and interpret them in a biased way we know they are no longer honest messengers but advocates of an ideology.

 

Finally, for those possessed of a more open mind and who scorn the aforesaid propaganda, here’s another severe weather warning from Piers (ignore at your peril):

 

WeatherAction World RED WARNING for extreme weather 25-31 Dec

 

“WeatherAction forecasted weeks ahead that there will be many dangerous weather events around the world in the period 25-31 Dec and specified a triple whammy of extreme events for Britain/NW Europe, NE/E USA and South/East Queensland Australia.”

 

Don’t say we didn’t tell you.


Reference:

 

Dr. Wheeler, D., "A verification of UK gale forecasts by the `solar weather technique’: October 1995-September 1997." Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34

 

 

 

  

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Global Warming University in Shock Ban on Academic Freedom and Debate


Global Warming University in Shock Ban on Academic Freedom and Debate

 

Extremist pro-green Swedish university shackles academic freedom and bans all teaching that doesn’t conform to dogma of human-caused global warming.

 

The latest victim targeted by global warming fascists is Swedish professor, Dr. Claes Johnson who is smacked down for speaking the truth by his employers, the Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm.

 

Ban Linked to Sensational Revelations in Johnson’s New Book

 

It’s no coincidence that Johnson, a world-leading mathematics professor has been silenced in the very week his co-authored climate skeptic book, Slaying the Sky Dragon: Death of the Greenhouse Gas Theory’ stormed has stormed the science best seller listings after rave reviews.

 

Johnson is among 22 leading international experts who have dared to join forces and speak out in a blockbuster of a book that exposes the fraudulent science and calculations built into the theory of man-made global warming. The two-volume publication skillfully shreds the lies of government climatologists that faked the warming effect of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by falsely multiplying the numbers three times over.

 

Cynics are claiming the teaching ban is a knee-jerk panic reaction to these startling revelations that Johnson had dared to explain in depth to his inquisitive students.

 

Academic Censorship Gone Mad

 

The math professor reports that this latest gagging is most extreme because it includes required material for his students and may be fatally damaging to their studies.

 

The highly-experienced and respected professor has been banned by his bosses from teaching any “part of course material in the course Numerical Methods II.” The material is also found in his ebook, ‘BodyandSoul.

 

Dr. Johnson laments, “the course, has been "stopped" by the President of the Royal Technological Institute KTH, because the book contains a mathematical analysis of some models related to climate simulation.”

 

It appears the blanket ban was precipitated after a small clique of pro-green student activists protested to the university that Johnson was daring to address both sides of the global warming debate. The story is also reported by DN.SE, a popular Scandinavian publication who added, “the school took away pages of the book.”

 

The ban is likely to be seized upon as yet further proof of undemocratic and politicized corruption of academia; adding strength to claims that global warming propagandists have systematically hijacked educational standards.

 

 More details on this disturbing new development on the professor’s blog, ‘Claes Johnson on Mathematics and Science.’

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Top Science Panel Caught in Another Global Warming Data Fraud

Newly released science book revelation is set to heap further misery on UN global warming researchers. Will latest setback derail Cancun Climate conference?

 

Authors of a new book  Slaying the Sky Dragon: Death of the Greenhouse Gas Theory’ claim they have debunked the widely established greenhouse gas theory climate change. In the first of what they say will be a series of sensational statements to promote the launch of their book, they attack a cornerstone belief of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – what is known as the “carbon isotope argument.”

 

Mišo Alkalaj, is one of 24 expert authors of this two-volume publication, among them are qualified climatologists, prominent skeptic scientists and a world leading math professor. It is Alkalaj’s chapter in the second of the two books that exposes the fraud concerning the isotopes 13C/12C found in carbon dioxide (CO2).

 

If true, the disclosure may possibly derail last-ditch attempts at a binding international treaty to ‘halt man-made global warming.’ At minimum the story will be sure to trigger a fresh scandal for the beleaguered United Nations body.

 

Do Human Emissions of Carbon Dioxide Exhibit a Distinct Signature?

 

The low-key internal study focused on the behavior of 13C/12C isotopes within carbon dioxide (CO2) molecules and examined how the isotopes decay over time. Its conclusions became the sole basis of claims that ‘newer’ airborne CO2 exhibits a different and thus distinct ‘human signature.’ The paper was employed by the IPCC to give a green light to researchers to claim they could quantify the amount of human versus natural proportions just from counting the number of isotopes within that ‘greenhouse gas.’

 

Alkalaj, who is head of Center for Communication Infrastructure at the "J. Stefan" Institute, Slovenia says because of the nature of organic plant decay, that emits CO2, such a mass spectrometry analysis is bogus. Therefore he argues, IPCC researchers are either grossly incompetent or corrupt because it is impossible to detect whether carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is of human or organic origin. 

 

Skeptics Out to Derail Cancun Climate Conference?

 

Cynics are claiming ‘Isotope-gate’ is just a promotional stunt to hype this book launch. They say its also deliberately timed to disrupt the latest major international climate conference in Cancun, Mexico (November 29th – December 10th).

 

The Cancun Climate conference (COP 16) is seen as a make or break attempt by world leaders to secure a binding international treaty to limit emissions of carbon dioxide after the failure of the Copenhagen Climate Summit last year. Copenhagen was undermined by the Climategate revelations and this latest attempt by skeptics may be a repeat.

 

The ‘Isotope-gate’ story is one of many planned promotional releases from the book and this publication is bound to cause embarrassment to delegates in Mexico if the revelations it contains become widely known.

 

Worryingly for Cancun (and the IPCC) this new book makes far bolder claims than have been made before by skeptics. Its authors say they have scientifically and mathematically disproved the greenhouse gas theory. The theory is the bedrock of all scientific claims that humans are responsible for climate change.

 

‘Slayers’ Book Reveals New Evidence of UN Climate Fraud

 

The  13C/12C argument being attacked by Mišo Alkalaj may be found in IPCC’s AR4 – The Physical Science Basis Working Group. The IPCC clarifies its position on Page 139 of that chapter.

 

 According to Miso the fatal assumption made by the IPCC is that the atmospheric concentration of the 13C isotope (distinctive in prehistoric plants) are fixed. They also assume C3-type plants no longer exist so would need to be factored into the equations. Indeed, as Miso points out such plants, “make up 95% of the mass of all current plant life.”

 

Therefore, decay of 95% of present-day plant material is constantly emitting the 13C-deficient carbon dioxide supposedly characteristic of coal combustion—and CO2 emitted by plant decay is an order of magnitude greater than all human-generated emissions.

 

‘Isotope-gate’ is Twin Brother of Himalayagate

 

But a more sinister twist to the story is not just that the researchers erred in mistakenly overlooking the flaws about the 13C isotope, but that they never referred the analysis to outsider verification.

 

As with the Himalayagate controversy, the Prentice paper was never reviewed beyond the secretive four walls of UN climate alarmism; it relied entirely on an internal uncorroborated source.

 

On this cynical practice Mišo observes, “Few readers will be bothered to follow the trail all the way and especially not the ‘policymakers.’ But the few that do frequently find out that the argument is circular (A quotes B and B quotes A), etc.”

 

Thus, there exists no proof of any such distinct ‘human signal’ anywhere in samples of atmospheric CO2 and the IPCC is discredited. Therefore, once again, the public has been shown compelling evidence of how it was duped by junk science promoted knowingly by an international gang of fraudsters.

 

References:

 

IPCC (TAR) Third Report (2001), The Scientific Basis,’ Working Group 1

IPCC  (FAR) Fourth Report (2007) ‘The Physical Science Basis,’ Working Group 1

Ball, T., Johnson, C., Hertzberg, M., Olson, J.A., et al., Slaying the Sky Dragon: Death of the Greenhouse Gas Theory,’ (November, 2010), accessed online at: amazon.com (November 26, 2010).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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