As April deluges soak Britain a top long-range weather forecaster denounces error-prone Environment Agency and mainstream media spin over “widespread” drought claims.
Londoner Piers Corbyn, the maverick long-range forecaster of WeatherAction.com has poured more cold water over Britain’s discredited Environment Agency and gullible eco-crazed national newspapers. Corbyn reveals how self-serving pro-green zealots obstruct his efforts to help give Britons a chance of a more effective national long-range weather prediction service.
Mainstream media organ, The Guardian typifies the lunatic element. The paper’s Environment pages (April 16, 2012) have been gushing constant drought gloom and doom to a dwindling flock of readers.
The Guardian’s Big Green drips Fiona Harvey and Madeleine Cuff have been pouring on the spin from the UK’s Environment Agency about a ”Wildlife and farming disaster warning as drought spreads across England Officials warn dry spell could last into next year and hosepipe bans could be extended to cover larger areas.“
Oh, really? As they say, a picture speaks a thousand words. Contrast and compare with a different picture emerging the very same day with a flush of photographs from Corbyn fans showing reservoirs and dams filled to capacity – so much for Harvey and Cuff ‘s “widespread” drought.
Howden Dam in Derbyshire on April 16, 2012
Drought? What Drought?
Indeed, the numbers also contradict The Guardian’s (and Environ –mental Agency’s) story. April 2012 has so far turned out to be the wettest since 2000 with over 55mm of rain falling compared with the April average of 54mm and there’s still another week to go!
Not only are the climate realists at WeatherAction declaring this Britain’s “wettest ever drought.” BBC weatherman, Paul Hudson is also conceding that, “April could end up the wettest on record in Lincolnshire.”
Photos from Russ in Chesterfield, Derbyshire show major dams at the Derwent Valley are brimming with H2O. Russ reports that the ‘Howden,’ the ‘Derwent’ and ‘Ladybower’ are close to overflowing. “I have seen the Derwent dam go from 5o percent to full in a little over 5 days,” reports Russ. The Derwent and Howden dams both hold around 2 billion gallons, while the huge Ladybower dam holds 6.1 billion gallons.
Derwent Dam: April 16 2012
So why have those well-funded government prophets gotten this so wrong yet again? As usual, the loquacious Londoner, Piers Corbyn, is awash with answers.
Planning and Infrastructure Crisis As UK Population Rises
Quite simply confusion reigns from the top down. Corbyn is exasperated at how such “experts” are constantly drowning in a sea of water tables, evaportation rates, regional contrasts, deluges versus steady rain etc. In a previous period of “drought” Corbyn reveals he had discussions with certain water company and environment agency experts as to why there wasn’t enough rain even though there seemed to be plenty.
WeatherAction’s frontman explains, “Even though the government and the public were desperately worried that not enough rain would come the Environment Agency didn’t want to know my forecasts (even though they agreed I had skill).”
And boy, does Corbyn have skill! His WeatherAction forecasts are consistently waterproof showing “85 percent accuracy” months ahead, as affirmed by peer-reviewed scientific studies. That’s why Corbyn is seeing a tsunami of front-page headlines in less biased sections of Britain’s national press. Any rational taxpayer will want to know what excuse the Environment Agency has for not wanting the UK’s most successful long-range weather forecaster onboard when there are weather-related government crisis meetings.
Corbyn explains the fiasco by drawing a comparison with the failures of a previous government. “It reminded me of when senior MPs were in endless discussions with Gordon Brown [when he was Chancellor] on his application of ‘The Five Tests’ about whether we join the Euro or not. The answers were so conditionally interrelated as to be incomprehensible and all you knew was that ONLY Gordon understood his “Five Tests” and only Gordon could judge the results and, well Gordon would decide,” laments Corbyn.
Meanwhile, the Environment Agency continues to muddy the waters with it’s nonsensical drought warning claiming that the latest deluges are insufficient to alleviate drought conditions. As such, they say “water restrictions could continue beyond Christmas.”
This has inflamed Corbyn who relentlessly challenges Britain’s ‘greenest government ever’ that claims to champion measures to tackle climate change. But Corbyn says that the real ‘crisis’ is not so much a shortage of rain but a shortfall in investment – including desalination.
The irony is that the politics of climate change has not allowed for a drought in the UK – all this by a country surrounded by water. Corbyn has a point. If the government truly feared weird weather due to so-called man-made climate change then it wouldn’t have dried up on investment plans for desalination plants; and as per Christopher Booker’s financial analysis, its all less to do with global warming and more about a national population increase of 10 percent since the last drought of 1976.
Critics are losing patience with successive governments that for too long have pandered to fringe eco-lunacy lobbyists and profiteering water utility companies. Britain desperately needs and deserves a better long-range weather forecasting service. As such the Environment Agency is due a major clean out. And let’s not forget the drip-drip affect of repeatedly inaccurate weather predictions that forced the Met Office to pull the plug on trying to compete with Corbyn. As such they no longer publish any long range weather forecasts. So a rinse and repeat would do wonders for the discredited Met Office as well to purge its computer models of junk science based on mythical “greenhouse gas warming.”
In the final analysis, common sense dictates it’s time for Corbyn to be given a chance. His swollen ranks of supporters are in no doubt he will go down a storm if allowed a place at the decision-makers’ table.
johnosullivan 
John, simply brill! – and not because I am quoted!
Readers might like to know that despite our well praised forecast through Easter this April later turned wet when we didn’t expect it. We have now got a handle on why and this is explained in a news statement we issued: http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=450&c=5
(NB a longer version went to subscribers).
These findings INCREASE our confidence of an exceptionally cold May in Eastern parts and now we have the exciting observations that this weather pattern of ‘languishing cyclonic conditions’ is like what was understood to have been common in Spring weather during the ‘Maunder Minimum’ of solar activity aka The Little Ice Age – see Readers discussion Peter Harrison and me via same link.
With the prospect of vast shale gas reserves, the energy to power desalination plants is on the verge of being available, so why isn’t the government pressing ahead with the planning for these in cooperation with the water companies – now?
The second track is that tax receipts from the impending shale gas bonanza, both direct and indirect (through the recovery of the UK economy from having lower energy bills) could be invested in the water companies with the direct instruction to ‘plug the leaks’, i.e. renew the infrastructure to last for the next 50-100+ years. Not only would we save water, but also create real jobs, and see the price of water reduce, or at least not rise (so reduce in real terms), again, a benefit to the economy.
Yet again the blind following the blind! As a prominent American media guy said just the other day are the deniers going to pay when it goes wrong!! Well are the scaremongers going to pay my utility bills when the penny drops?? I doubt it. This is communism gone mad bye bye CND hello global warming freaks
Ahhhh but they call the rain we are having here in the UK at the moment ‘The Wrong Sort of Rain’ y’know, it’s a bit too wet and runs off the land…
…it must go somewhere but nobody knows!!!!!!!
Having just returned from the Middle East, y’know that frigging big desert just north of Africa where they have been building desalination plants for the past 50 years brings a few things to mind.
Britain is an island, we should have had a national grid of water decades ago if the Water Industry had got it’s act together.
I have an idea, get all the fat cats in the water industry together, give ’em a bucket each and tell the swines to get out there and earn their million pound bonuses.
If this were China, they would have been rounded up and shot by firing squads by now for crimes against the state.
Water? fishes F**k in it don’t they?
Ho Ho Ho
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Nonsense. The drought is what we have had, not what we are having. No amount of forecasting would have changed the fact that we haven’t had enough rain during the last two years. People like Piers Corbyn cannot accept that the Met Office and the Environment Agency have the greater understanding of climate and weather and that is why they make so much noise trying to suggest that they don’t. Met Office do not respond to allegations of inaccuracy or incompetence because they don’t need to.
Mr. Smith,
How wrong you are! The facts prove the Met Office has a lower understanding of weather and climate than Corbyn, as proven by their wastefulness and incompetence.
In 2008 they spent £33 million on an IBM supercomputer that they fed with junk science greenhouse gas theory GIGO. As a consequence the Met Office became so incompetent at long-range weather forecasting that public ridicule compelled them to withdraw the service.
Despite an annual budget of around £82.3 million the Met Office now only offers a monthly “outlook.” Contrast and compare with Corbyn’s 85 percent success rate for full seasonal forecasting (proven by scientific peer review) and achieved with a relative pittance. No wonder the public feel outraged.
I don’t agree. Buying an expensive IBM supercomputer would be to increase processing power and therefore increase the resolution, timestep, accuracy of their already world leading & proven NWP models that aim to simulate the true behaviour of the atmosphere & ocean as validated against observations; far beyond the sophistication of supposed ‘skillful’ techniques spammed and evangelised by Piers Corbyn: not published because his techniques would not stand up to scientific scrutiny. Corbyn’s 85% success rate is not based on predictions of the detail that the Met Office used to produce. As I said before the Met Office and the Environment Agency have the greater understanding of climate and weather, and that’s a fact (100% accurate). But that’s just my opinion. Piers Corbyn makes money out of misleading people into thinking he can forecast weather with 85% accuracy beyond 10 days in a chaotic system, if he can find people who will pay for that, then fair play to him. Plenty of people make their money in more dubious ways…
Mr Smith,
Corbyn has been right so often in betting on his long-range weather forecasts that Ladbrokes banned him. He puts his money where his mouth is. Do you?
Are you an employee of the Met Office by any chance? You seem just as impervious to facts.
No I’m not an employee of the Met Office, but I know the quality of their scientists.
Right often, but how often wrong? Everyone would love to know that, but then Piers would be out of business pretty quickly.
I would seem impervious to facts, to you, wouldn’t I…
@ Mr Smith………Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha……what a tool…..The Met Office are useless, with all there millions and they STILL cannot predict further than a few days….THAT IS WHY THEY HAVE GIVEN UP ON LONG RANGE..Now they want even more funding for there scrap computers just to get the WRONG answer quicker….There models prove NOTHING they are WRONG 99% of the time…Why? Because garbage in means garbage out. FACT……..There is enough evidence out there to prove it. You must be part of there organization to spout such rubbish.
Quote….
“The Met Office has confirmed it is to abandon long range weather forecasts, finally acknowledging criticism. The most recent forecasts were so inaccurate, that even the BBC is reconsidering whether to appoint an alternative supplier, such as Accuweather, after 88 years of continuous service from the 1,700-strong MoD unit.”
Yes yes Mr Smith keep on supporting rubbish but then rubbish does follow rubbish……roflmao…….
Mr Smith,
Which part of “85 percent accuracy” by a peer-reviewed scientific study, do you not get? The study, by Dr Dennis Wheeler, University of Sunderland, is in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34. Go check it out and admit you don’t know what you are talking about.
The last but one comment really made me laugh! I’m sorry I can see what you are trying to say, but I can’t see a single sentence there that has any truth in it. And for goodness sake, it’s ‘their’. ‘their’.
J O Sullivan, I wasn’t clear enough in my last post, I am capable of taking 85 away from 100 believe it or not. On its own ’85 percent accuracy’ means nothing. Over what period, how many forecasts, how long were the forecats, forecasting what exactly, and how are TP, FP, TN, FN defined? I was referring to Corbyn’s general level of accuracy, rather than a specific study. Specifically the claims he makes versus the reality. But thanks for the reference, I will take a look, I suspect the 85 percent value is based on some convenient assumptions…
@ Mr Smith. Apologies for a small error in my writings. I AM NOT A COMPUTER. I’m human and errors can be made when typing. But if that’s all you can do is pick on that you are still a useless tool. At least i can admit an error. lol…..unlike you…….
Oh yes Mr Smith i almost forgot to mention. It hurts when the true facts start coming out hey? Laugh as much as you like because you know it’s true….hehehe……
There’s a new name now for Global Warming no no i mean Climate Change oh no it ain’t that either…lol…Now called Climate Disruption, which is called Climate Jhihadism. It should have been called that latter from the beginning fits it perfectly……hehehehehe…..
Oh yes and there is a typo in my last message but that’s just to wind you up even more……. ;o)
Anyone enjoying the discussion here, this is all you need: It seems many with a similar view to myself have gone to great effort to look closely at PC’s claims. The article is old but I suspect the vast majority still applies. Oh dear Piers, only an MSc? That’s not very good is it… 😀
http://scienceblogs.com/stoat/2007/06/piers_corbyn.php
J O Sullivan, a short search for Dr Dennis Wheeler, University of Sunderland, is in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Vol 63 (2001) p29-34 didn’t throw up much, but I did find the above which was very interesting. Is the Wheeler paper available on WeatherAction.com these days? Or perhaps you know of a link to it that will save me some more time searching. Thanks.
Mr, Smith,
That’s right Corbyn is a scientist with the “mere” credentials of MSc., ARCS, FRAS, FRMetS. He got his MSc in Astrophysics from Queen Mary College London. His first scientific publications were on aspects of meteorology and astronomy – for work done while still at school. He won a Royal Scholarship to Imperial College London and gained a first class degree in Physics (with Theoretical Physics option in the final year) in 1968 and there carried out post-graduate researches into superconductivity and was elected as president of Imperial College Student Union for 1969-1970.
I have no link to the paper by Dr. Wheeler but even PC’s enemies don’t deny that he is a well-respected academic, a lecturing qualified statistician commissioned by a consortium of leading insurers to scrupulously weigh Corbyn’s success rate claims.
Corbyn carried out astrophysics research at Queen Mary College London and published work on galaxy formation and the mean matter density of the universe. Corbyn has lectured extensively in mathematics and Physics at South Bank University, Goldsmiths College (University of London) and other institutions. His eldest brother, David Edward, worked in Aeronautical engineering and his younger sibling, Jeremy, is (or was) Labour MP for Islington North. Corbyn appears frequently in radio and TV interviews and is one of the BBC’s quotable experts:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299079.stm
If you follow the link in my article to WeatherAction you will find a section that provides extensive data as proof of Corbyn’s successes.
Nice cut and paste. Yes I read all that under the link I posted. I also read somewhere that the supposed MSc is not recorded? (rationalwiki). Corbyn has been off my radar since about 2000/2001 and I’ve become interested again recently after stumbling upon a couple of articles. I read a lot more last evening, including what weatheraction have to say.
It’s pretty clear to me that the wheeler paper is unavailable, and will not be available on weatheraction. Funny how weatheraction don’t delve into any details of that paper. It’s ok though others do. I find that the constantly quoted ’85 percent’ claim come from predicting tropical storms in regions and periods where there are TS going on on all but 2 or 3 days of each month!! Like shooting fish in a barrel. And that the bulk of Corbyn’s predictive success in the Wheeler paper was on predicting ‘no gales’ during the summer, during which thare are no gales 72 percent of the time..with an accuracy of…73 percent. Correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t believe the ’85 percent’ claim comes from Wheeler’s paper? I think you might have pointed me to the wrong article there. I think PC takes his 85 percent prediction from the tropical storms piece, and tries to create the impression that that is his general level of accuracy on everything else. Just a theory 😉
Anyway I find many, many others with similar views to myself have raised these concerns already, over the last 10 years, all over the web.
Mr Smith,
What a blinkered view of the facts you take. Recent events prove to me that Piers Corbyn seems most keen to prove himself a better forecaster than the Met Office, as shown below. As the facts demonstrate, any dirty tricks appear to be perpetrated by the Met Office in cahoots with the BBC. As such there is growing public belief that both government agencies are running scared of Corbyn. This is evidenced by their underhandedness when challenged recently to meet Corbyn in a head-to-head forecasting “shootout.” Indeed, the BBC’s Roger Harrabin, as organizer, damaged his own credibility when apparently caught rigging the test as seen here:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2099922/BBCs-Weather-Test-washout-bid-check-accuracy-forecasts-vanishes-storm-wrangling-predicted.html
Harrabin has been exposed as a shill of Big Green interests rendering him less than an honest broker in this venture. I was personally involved in this controversy after my email correspondence and phone calls with Mr. Harrabin. it became clear to me there was an evident lack of impartiality among the individuals and institutions Harrabin had lined up to assess the weather and the forecasts for the project, which would fundamentally undermine it. For example, it appeared that:
· The Met Office would be acting as competitor and judge, using its own weather stations
· The statistics would be dealt with by Leeds University – one of three academic institutions with whom the Met Office formed what is described as ‘a world class academic partnership to tackle the problems of climate change ‘
· The ‘independent’ meteorologist for the project, Philip Eden, is another BBC man and has since that blog post been accused of making disparaging remarks questioning the accuracy of independent weathermen’s forecasts.
For more insight you will find the controversy is well covered on Autonomous Mind here:
So you lose the moral high ground if you continue to impute anything untoward by Corbyn while ignoring the obvious shenanigans and rule rigging of the “shootout” by these biased Establishment agencies.
Mr Smith
April 25, 2012 at 9:28 am
“…the fact that we haven’t had enough rain during the last two years.”
I watched the news reports of this “Wettest Drought” this-morning and I have been following it’s embarrassing progress over the past month.
I understand your claim of not having enough rain over the past 24 months is the reason for the reservoirs being low at the beginning of this year, it is now being reported that the reservoirs have been filling up nicely and most are now overflowing and in fact the rivers and streams are flooding this month, with the MET forecasting heavy rainfall through the weekend and next week, everyone now expects the reservoirs to be at full capacity.
And as you and other morons have claimed that it takes 24 months of lower than usual rainfall to empty these reservoirs, isn’t it logical that there is now enough water for another two years even with “unusually low rainfall”?.
I also understand that even at the height of this this ‘wettest drought’ fiasco the geological water table levels were considered normal and private water companies in neighboring counties up stream were considering drilling a well to pipe water which of course would be sold on to effected counties down stream, and at one point there was reports that the “Environment (lunatic asylum) Agency was promoting the idea of installing millions of smart water meters that would inform them of any persons who were in violation of the hosepipe ban which of course would cost those paying customers millions of pounds, pretty nasty stuff don’t you agree!
As for you ignorant rant about Piers Corbyn, I thought it was very unfair, considering that Mr. Corbyn has in fact Not done anything wrong, I understand he’s a an accomplished physicist and excellent meteorologist and which his forecasts are by his own company and therefor does not fall under the public scrutiny in the same way that the met office does, also I believe your a fool, anyone who thinks that the “Environment (lunatic asylum) Agency” is any authority for meteorological, geological or that it even does comprehensive hydrological research is a complete moron of the highest order.
People in the effected areas should complain about the badly maintained and current poor state of their infrastructure (which they pay for) and demand that their water companies fit the bill for the repair of all those reported leaks and compensate those effected, and also be made to apologize publicly for the attempt of imposing new charges on their customers.
Believe me when I say that you’ll never hear of another hose pipe ban ever again if those who are there to run and maintain the infrastructure have to pay for their failure.
Heh – the Daily Mail again, of course. I’ll keep the moral high ground, and not continue then. I’ll let you have the last word, it’s your blog.
Mr. Smith,
Why do you resort to insulting others when the facts don’t suit your argument?
It seems obvious that Corbyn’s long range accuracy is no where near as accurate as he claims. If it was he would be able to make billions profting from trading in energy and commodity markets, the prices of which are highly weather dependent. Or he could simply sell his forecasts to an investment bank, they would pay handsomely for seasonal forecasts of peer reviewed 85%+ accuracy, certainly much much more than the 20,000 he claims to have made from William Hill.
But they don’t.
John,
I have just found your blog and I have to say it is some of the finest and most lucid writing I have read on the internet. However I suggest you should buy some of Piers’ forecasts and then make your own judgement.
Thanks, Martin. I’ve been receiving Piers Corbyn’s forecasts for almost two years now and they do appear to be the best long-range forecasts currently available. There are occasions when he gets thing wrong and he admits he isn’t perfect but overall he’s very good. But I’m always eager to see the science progress so if you know of anyone else who does them better I’d be very interested to make comparisons.
Best,
John
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